Sales Recruiting:
Every sales hire is a forecast. You’re betting that this person, in your environment, with your product, will produce a certain level of revenue. While no forecast is perfect, you can dramatically increase your accuracy by combining quantitative and qualitative signals.
Analyze historical performance data
Start with the candidate’s track record:
- Quota for each role and time period
- Actual attainment over multiple quarters
- Average deal size and sales cycle
- Type of customers and industries
Look for consistency across time and roles. A rep who has repeatedly hit 90–110% of realistic quotas in comparable environments is more predictable than someone who had one breakout year and several weak ones.
Adjust for context
Performance does not occur in a vacuum. Ask:
- How strong was the brand and product-market fit?
- How supportive were marketing and SDR teams?
- Were territories large and well-defined, or small and fragmented?
A rep who did well in a highly supported, inbound-heavy environment may perform differently in a scrappier outbound role.
Use structured assessments
Layer in structured tools to measure traits associated with sales success:
- Resilience and grit
- Coachability
- Problem-solving
- Learning agility
Psychometric assessments and structured interviews help detect whether the candidate’s natural strengths align with the demands of your role.
Evaluate pipeline thinking and math
Ask the candidate to describe how they build and manage a healthy pipeline. For example:
- “If your annual quota is $1M with a $50K average deal size and 25% win rate, how many qualified opportunities do you need each quarter?”
Watch how quickly and comfortably they reason about these numbers. Strong performers think in pipeline math naturally.
Simulate your environment
If possible, run a small practical exercise:
- Have them prepare a short territory plan
- Ask them to draft a sample outreach sequence
- Role-play a discovery call
You’re not just evaluating skill; you’re seeing how they adapt to your specific context.
Triangulate with references
Finally, confirm your forecast by talking to people who have seen the rep in action. Ask managers:
- “If you were hiring for a similar role again, where would you rank this person among your past reps?”
- “What kind of environment do they thrive in?”
Forecasting sales performance will never be perfect, but when you treat it as a disciplined process instead of a guess, you substantially reduce risk and improve hiring outcomes.